EBRD Flags Risks to Serbia’s Growth Amid Political and Global Pressures

Serbia’s economy is projected to grow 2.5% this year and 3.3% in 2026, driven partly by Expo-related investments, according to the EBRD’s latest outlook.

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However, the Bank warns that domestic political tensions and global trade disruptions could weigh heavily on exports, foreign investment, and structural reforms.

Growth slowed to 2% in the first half of 2025, with ICT and manufacturing — particularly electric vehicles and tire production — providing momentum, while construction dragged output down.

Rising government spending, higher inflation at 4.9% in July, and a widening current account deficit further underline economic vulnerabilities.

Looking ahead, stronger auto exports and infrastructure projects could boost performance, but sustained uncertainty in the EU market and regional instability remain major obstacles to Serbia’s long-term growth.